2001-02 NCAA Seeding Correlation

2001-02 NCAA Tournament Seedings & Results
(prior to NCAA Tournament)
NCAA	NCAA						Massey	Sagarin	Avg.	Variance
Seed	Seed #	Team		RPI #	AP #	ESPN/USA #	Ranking	Ranking	Result	from Seed
1	2.5	Duke		4	1	1	1	1	1.60	-0.36
1	2.5	Kansas		1	2	2	3	3	2.20	-0.12
1	2.5	Maryland		3	4	4	4	4	3.80	0.52
1	2.5	Cincinnati		2	5	5	2	2	3.20	0.28
2	6.5	Alabama		7	8	8	8	7	7.60	0.17
2	6.5	Oklahoma		5	3	3	5	5	4.20	-0.35
2	6.5	Connecticut		8	10	13	13	14	11.60	0.78
2	6.5	Oregon		34	11	11	16	11	16.60	1.55
3	10.5	Arizona		6	7	8	12	8	8.20	-0.22
3	10.5	Pittsburgh		10	9	7	10	18	10.80	0.03
3	10.5	Georgia		18	23	40	25	24	26.00	1.48
3	10.5	Mississippi State		9	17	18	7	15	13.20	0.26
4	14.5	Southern California		26	18	16	18	16	18.80	0.30
4	14.5	Ohio State		17	14	12	17	19	15.80	0.09
4	14.5	Kentucky		11	16	15	21	13	15.20	0.05
4	14.5	Illinois		12	13	16	14	12	13.40	-0.08
5	18.5	Indiana		20	42	40	26	21	29.80	0.61
5	18.5	Miami (FL)		16	21	21	27	29	22.80	0.23
5	18.5	Marquette		23	12	10	11	9	13.00	-0.30
5	18.5	Florida		15	15	14	15	6	13.00	-0.30
6	22.5	California		29	42	40	22	26	31.80	0.41
6	22.5	Gonzaga		21	6	6	6	10	9.80	-0.56
6	22.5	Texas Tech		13	28	27	28	22	23.60	0.05
6	22.5	Texas		22	31	31	37	31	30.40	0.35
7	26.5	Oklahoma State		19	20	22	31	23	23.00	-0.13
7	26.5	Xavier		14	22	19	9	20	16.80	-0.37
7	26.5	North Carolina State		32	26	25	29	27	27.80	0.05
7	26.5	Wake Forest		24	30	28	35	28	29.00	0.09
8	30.5	Notre Dame		41	37	30	39	33	36.00	0.18
8	30.5	UCLA		30	32	34	34	37	33.40	0.10
8	30.5	Wisconsin		55	36	36	44	49	44.00	0.44
8	30.5	Stanford		38	24	23	24	17	25.20	-0.17
9	34.5	Charlotte		37	42	40	40	34	38.60	0.12
9	34.5	Mississippi		45	42	37	36	35	39.00	0.13
9	34.5	St. Johns		40	42	40	55	64	48.20	0.40
9	34.5	Western Kentucky		28	19	20	19	32	23.60	-0.32
10	38.5	Kent State		25	27	26	20	25	24.60	-0.36
10	38.5	Hawaii		27	25	24	23	40	27.80	-0.28
10	38.5	Michigan State		35	33	40	33	36	35.40	-0.08
10	38.5	Pepperdine		49	29	40	32	44	38.80	0.01
11	42.5	Pennsylvania		36	35	40	49	50	42.00	-0.01
11	42.5	Wyoming		63	42	40	43	55	48.60	0.14
11	42.5	Southern Illinois		48	38	29	41	48	40.80	-0.04
11	42.5	Boston College		42	42	40	58	62	48.80	0.15
12	46.5	Utah		31	42	40	42	41	39.20	-0.16
12	46.5	Missouri		54	42	40	50	42	45.60	-0.02
12	46.5	Tulsa		33	38	32	30	30	32.60	-0.30
12	46.5	Creighton		44	38	36	53	67	47.60	0.02

rsq	0.974	top 6 seeds		0.416	0.521	0.389	0.515	0.476	0.573	-0.56	Min
rsq	0.993	top 12 seeds		0.683	0.659	0.600	0.644	0.742	0.762	1.55	Max
	Ideal		Normalized	RPI #	AP #	ESPN/USA #	Massey	Sagarin	Average
					*	*
* Note - Others Receiving Votes were included, teams without any votes were given the next open rank number. When multiple vote numbers were present, the lowest rank was given.

ChartObject Predicted vs. Actual
NCAA Seeding
(2001-02 Season)

Preliminary Conclusions

1.) Interestingly, the AP poll is the best predictor of the lot in terms of correlating rank to seeding, while the Coaches poll is the worst. A major reason for this can be attributed to the fact that Georgia was not in the final Coaches poll (they didn't even receive any votes) after being ranked #19 the week before. Adjusting the Georgia rank to a typical value seen with the other rankings gives the ESPN/USA Today coaches poll a much more respectable r-squared of approximately 0.49 for the top 6 seeds.

2.) Of the mathematical models, the Massey rating is the best at correlating the top 6 seeds, while the Sagarin is superior in correlating with the top 12 seeds. The RPI comes up last in predicting the top 6 seeds but comes in second among mathematical models in predicting the top 12 seeds.

3.) As seen with last year, taking an average of all the models gives a superior correlation to the actual seeding the committee used over any single rating. This is the most important take-home message of this entire analysis.

4.)The final column shows a weighted variance of the computed average seed as determined from the various polls and models to the actual seed given by the committee. A negative number indicates the team's rating was better than its seed, suggesting possibly the team deserved a higher seed. A positive number indicates the team might have received a higher seed than they deserved.

The team with the largest negative number is Gonzaga. Who according to the average rating should have earned a seed around #2 or #3. But they received a #6 seed. The team with the largest positive number is Oregon. Their average rating would suggest a #4 or #5 seed, while they actually were given a #2 seed.

Last Updated March 13, 2002

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